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Axia initiated coverage with Buy recommendation and price target of €8.30. EDPR’s business model offers growth through the expansion of its installed capacity, focusing mainly in North America and specifically in the US, as the supportive policies for wind park developments are maintained and wind energy is becoming increasingly competitive vs. conventional energy.
BofAML adjusts its price target to €7.70 from €8.00 on model updates, while maintains its Buy recommendation. EPS was raised based on depreciation accounting changes. According to the broker, underlying changes are modest and growth to 2020 continue to be solid.
BBVA updates EDPR’s valuation and raises price target from €7.25 to €7.80 that is now based on a 30-year asset life (vs 25 years previously). Outperform recommendation is maintained as the broker believes EDPR has a compelling equity story and offers an attractive upside potential.
Berenberg decreases its price target from €6.60 to €4.50 and downgrades its recommendation to Sell on the back of rising bond yields, namely analyst view on Portuguese bond yield, and uncertainty over US market. Price target revision also considers change in depreciation policy from 25 to 30 years.
BPI maintains Buy recommendation and decreases price target from €8.15 to €8.00 following updated estimates and assumptions, however, the broker states that the growing competitiveness of wind power and the increased useful life of wind turbines provide sector tailwinds. In addition, EDPR adds to it a clear underperformance vs peers and markets in general, visible growth targets, improving CF generation and enticing benchmark valuations from asset rotation deals.
Bryan Garnier maintains price target at €6.30 along with Neutral recommendation. The broker considers that caution is necessary given the current lack of visibility on the regulatory and fiscal environment in the US and the high volatility on the group's bottom line.
Caixa BI maintains price target of €7.60 and Buy recommendation despite the weak FY16 earnings momentum. The analyst considers that EDPR's investment case remains solid with superior growth, high visibility on growth targets and the ongoing delivery of asset rotation transactions.
Citi maintains both Neutral recommendation and price target of €6.85. The broker believes that, despite offering robust growth pipeline compared to other renewables companies in Europe, the declining project IRRs and recent strong share price performance limit further material upside from these levels.
Deutsche Bank reiterates its Buy rating and the price target of €7.60 on the back of the analyst vision of EDPR as one of the best opportunities to invest in the renewable theme supported by the growth the company will achieve over the next 4 years.
Exane BNP increased price target from €6.8 to €8.0 with recommendation upgraded from Neutral to Overweight mainly due to the growth prospects, that appear robust with high visibility vs. the sector.
Goldman Sachs revised price target upwards to €7.40, with Neutral recommendation unchanged. Price revision reflects the valuation roll-forward to 2018 earnings.
Grupo CIMD updates price target to €7.50 from €6.60 with recommendation upgraded to Neutral from Reduce. The Year-end rollover added €50 cents; the change in P&L estimates added €15 cents, while the change at the Balance Sheet level contributed positively with €15 cents. The inclusion of UK offshore farm added €10 cents.
Haitong maintains Buy recommendation on EDPR, and adjusts price target from €7.90 to €6.75 in order to reflect the price offered by EDP in the tender offer.
HSBC increases price target from €7.50 to €7.80 and maintains Buy recommendation as the firm believes the stock offers sector leading earnings growth underpinned by solid growth in the renewables sector, improved cash flow generation and solid valuation appeal looking at capacity or CF yield metrics.
JB Capital Markets updates EDPR’s valuation to 2018, adding the new UK offshore wind project and updating the exchange rates and remuneration in Poland. All things considered, price target remains at €8.0 and Neutral recommendation is unchanged.
JP Morgan increases price target from €6.70 to €7.80 after a model update to reflect quarterly results, while maintains Overweight recommendation as they see EDPR as the only proposition in Iberia that combines positive earnings momentum, limited regulatory risk and clear medium term growth prospects.
Kepler Cheuvreux increases price target from €7.6 to €7.8 due to: 1) on the negative side, the impact of the lower US dollar; 2) on the positive side, the fine-tuning of net debt and tax equity liabilities, and a moderate reduction in the average WACCs (mainly in Portugal and rest of Europe - unchanged in Spain and the US).
Macquarie adjusts price target to €6.75 from €5.90 after the Portuguese stock market watchdog approved the offer for EDPR minorities. Recommendation remains unchanged at Neutral.
Morgan Stanley increases price target from €6.75 to €8.10 and maintains Equal-weight recommendation as, while they see strong value to EDPR and potential to trade towards their bull case of €10.50 (in line with renewables' M&A valuation), the firm believes limited liquidity and uncertainty around the EDPR target capital structure and future capex plan could be an overhang.
Natixis maintains Neutral recommendation and the price target of €6.90, following the presentation of the 2016 results, which were globally in line with the firm’s expectations at operating level, but missed expectations as regards net attributable profit. Price target obtained using the DCF valuation method.
Santander decreases price target from €7.8 to €7.7 maintaining Buy recommendation. The broker believes EDPR’s long-term outperformance is justified by its excellent assets, which are young, have above-standard load and availability factors and little exposure to merchant prices; moreover, it is in one of the few segments of the electricity business with growth prospects and it is not affected by the technological disruption; in addition its strategic plan looks reasonable and achievable.
Societe Generale upgrades price target from €7.15 to €7.40 and maintains Hold recommendation considering 9M17 results. While the firm recognize the attractive earnings growth, it believes the positives are priced in and some uncertainty persists in the sector.
UBS reiterates its Buy rating, owing to the dynamic value-accretive growth, the large, unwarranted discount to fair value and the scarcity value brought to the stock which is now a seemingly unique investment proposition in Europe. Its price target is unchanged at €8.00 and is derived from a DCF on existing asset base.